Avalanche bulletins and the human factor

[powderpilot]

Has anyone else noticed that the avalanche ratings go up on the weekends regarless of weather? Maybe I'm only noticing this year because I ride weekends now, but I check the avy and weather reports daily throughout the season, and it always seems that the rating shoots through the roof on weekends... At least here in the West Koots.

My best guess is that they predict more avalanches because most of them are human triggered, and more bodies on the hill means likely more avies? Is the CAC covering their butt a bit in case something happens?

I've ridden more simple, treed terrain this year than my last 4 years of riding combined. The testing we've done has had my confidence pretty high, while the report shows red...

 

[Modman]

Has anyone else noticed that the avalanche ratings go up on the weekends regarless of weather? Maybe I'm only noticing this year because I ride weekends now, but I check the avy and weather reports daily throughout the season, and it always seems that the rating shoots through the roof on weekends... At least here in the West Koots.

My best guess is that they predict more avalanches because most of them are human triggered, and more bodies on the hill means likely more avies? Is the CAC covering their butt a bit in case something happens?

I've ridden more simple, treed terrain this year than my last 4 years of riding combined. The testing we've done has had my confidence pretty high, while the report shows red...

2 weekends ago we were out and it went down on Fri/Sat. The CAC reports what they see, there is no objectivity IMO. We almost always dig a pit, but terrain is super variable and the bulletins are generalized to huge areas, two little slopes in the same area facing opposite aspects can be extremely different so they have to pick the greater of two evils. The ridge just west of airy mt as an example, one side faces south the other north. Based on sun exposure this time of year the solar radiation can make the south side slide big and the north side will stay colder and more stable since its in the shade all day. Could be that more people are out later in the week and they get more reports towards Friday night so this changes the report as they get more field information?

 

[ferniesnow]

I haven't noticed anything particular to the weekends. IMHO, it has been related to Mother Nature; sunshine, loading, and layers. We have some basins that are more likely to slide than they say (I think in some instances they could be higher in their ratings) with huge consequences due to large deposits of snow. The field team for the east Koot's hasn't been able to get to all the areas for factual reporting. With all the snow/rain we have had lately there has been a big fluctuation with the actual possibilities.

 

[TylerG]

Has anyone else noticed that the avalanche ratings go up on the weekends regarless of weather? Maybe I'm only noticing this year because I ride weekends now, but I check the avy and weather reports daily throughout the season, and it always seems that the rating shoots through the roof on weekends... At least here in the West Koots.

My best guess is that they predict more avalanches because most of them are human triggered, and more bodies on the hill means likely more avies? Is the CAC covering their butt a bit in case something happens?

I've ridden more simple, treed terrain this year than my last 4 years of riding combined. The testing we've done has had my confidence pretty high, while the report shows red...

In some ways sure maybe its being used as a scare tactic, but from what I can see, it's working.... for sledders anyways.

Even when the warnings are low we as sledders must use our heads, be aware of our surroundings and listen to whats going on around us. That's just as important as reading & more inportantly UNDERSTANDING the bulletins when they are posted.

 

[retiredpop]

They don't issue reports based on how much human activity will take place. As far as I know the CAC is not held responsible for avalanche activity no matter what they issue in their report although they probably get a lot of flack if they underestimate conditions. I will agree there have been more special avalanche warnings for weekends this year than normal because these people are very concerned about the conditions and the size of avalanches when they occur. Glad to hear you are riding safe stuff and checking conditions on your own.

 

[koby]

Naw, I think they call it as they see it as well.
On a positive note, the notification of media and having public broadcasts when conditions warrant it is a great step forward.
Lori at ZAC's said it is spoon feeding, haha, but what ever works. When people's family and friends hear it on the radio, it forces the conversation.
GOOD JOB CAC !

 

[powderpilot]

They don't issue reports based on how much human activity will take place. As far as I know the CAC is not held responsible for avalanche activity no matter what they issue in their report although they probably get a lot of flack if they underestimate conditions. I will agree there have been more special avalanche warnings for weekends this year than normal because these people are very concerned about the conditions and the size of avalanches when they occur. Glad to hear you are riding safe stuff and checking conditions on your own.

Not saying reports are based on the amount of human activity, but more on the likelyhood of avalanches occuring. This is the first year I've been pretty much restricted to weekends, maybe it's just a coincidence

I think the CAC is doing a fantastic job as well!!!

 

[helgy]

Its a coincidence. Bulletins are based on gathered information and snow science. It would be wrong (and dangerous) to assume the CAC over-estimates avalanche hazard based on estimated numbers of riders, to scare people, or to cover their ass. They are there for YOU, support them!

only $20 a year.