Higher and Higher wood prices

[Switch]

Wood prices are going thru the roof, a 2 X 4" X 8' stud that was $5.05 three weeks ago is now $7.25. A sheet of 7/16" OSB is now $30.00, when are these prices going to level out and settle down or are we going to see even higher pricing. Imagine if you where planning to build a fall project, there goes the budget, I know supply and demand factors in but what else is pushing this pricing - the fires in the states, the hurricane damages. Any thoughts or opinions out there.

 

[DUS]

Ya it’s crazy. Plywood has doubled since the start of Covid, I think over $40/ sheet for 1/2”. Still being told the can’t guarantee any pricing.
I’ve heard reasons being anything from Mills shutting down due to Covid creating shortages, tariffs/duties to everyone being stuck at home so their renovating and the lumber industry taking advantage and being just plain greedy

 

[LUCKY 7]

one of the house builders in Fernie says the new normal is going to be high wood prices.

 

[tejay]

Pricing is outrageous, blamed on covid , shortages , supply and demand , blah blah, but check out the record making profits for the real answer. Never let a pandemic go to waste . I have my basement framing project on hold because I refuse to pay pushing 10$ for an 8’ 2x4 tax in. Not happening.

 

[Caper11]

Simple economics supply and demand.
It will crash, once the order files stop filling due to warehouses being filled.
2013 board and lumber prices were high and it tanked. Looking at past trends, lumber and board prices are more volatile than oil.

I should have the new prices today in my email, if there has been any change.
This week 7/16’s was 710 US per thousand sqft.

 

[tejay]

Stella Jones profits https://www.globenewswire.com/news-...ports-Record-Second-Quarter-2020-Results.html

 

[catalac]

Simple economics supply and demand.
It will crash, once the order files stop filling due to warehouses being filled.
2013 board and lumber prices were high and it tanked. Looking at past trends, lumber and board prices are more volatile than oil.

I should have the new prices today in my email, if there has been any change.
This week 7/16’s was 710 US per thousand sqft.

I hope so.... planning to build a house summer 2021.

 

[tejay]

It’s looking promising but there are a lot of factors, covid, Trump,tariffs, Turdeau,

 

[Bnorth]

This is a funny place. When oil skyrockets everyone celebrates but when other commodities that support good jobs in Western Canada thrive it's just bitching.

I work in the industry so if you want to know what is actually happening here it is:
In 2018 prices spiked to what at the time were records due to dwindling log supply in BC leading to mill closures and mill curtailments and then a bad fire season made it worse with mills taking downtime due to fires in near proximity. This also led to logging shutdowns so when mills re-started they didn't have the logs in the yard to run full shifting. In late summer 2018 prices melted down catastrophically from record highs to below production costs in less than 3 months. This led to further mill closures as anything that was marginal was shutdown by the major producers to free up log supply to their more competitive mills.
In July 2019 stumpage prices spiked due to BC's antiquated stumpage formula catching up with the brief spike in market pricing from 2018. Now the prices suck and stumpage is so high the mills are really starting to lose money. Keep in mind there is also a 20% duty on lumber going to the US which is the largest buyer of Canadian lumber. Late 2019 early 2020 was rough on producers so they are carrying minimal inventory and running reduced shifting. Now COVID shows up and the fear is that demand is going to evaporate so minimal inventory of lumber and logs and minimal shifting is maintained to protect any operating lines these companies have left. No one saw demand spiking through COVID due to the renovation and remodeling demand which is what has driven this demand spike and being a commodity pricing skyrocketed to follow. This largely talking about the BC industry but being the largest supplier of high quality lumber what happens here has a big effect on the markets. Fire has had big impacts on many US operations as well particularly in the PNW. The South and Eastern US producers have had impacts due to tropical storms and COVID.

This has been my S&M talk, thanks for coming.

 

[adamg]

This is a funny place. When oil skyrockets everyone celebrates but when other commodities that support good jobs in Western Canada thrive it's just bitching.

I work in the industry so if you want to know what is actually happening here it is:
In 2018 prices spiked to what at the time were records due to dwindling log supply in BC leading to mill closures and mill curtailments and then a bad fire season made it worse with mills taking downtime due to fires in near proximity. This also led to logging shutdowns so when mills re-started they didn't have the logs in the yard to run full shifting. In late summer 2018 prices melted down catastrophically from record highs to below production costs in less than 3 months. This led to further mill closures as anything that was marginal was shutdown by the major producers to free up log supply to their more competitive mills.
In July 2019 stumpage prices spiked due to BC's antiquated stumpage formula catching up with the brief spike in market pricing from 2018. Now the prices suck and stumpage is so high the mills are really starting to lose money. Keep in mind there is also a 20% duty on lumber going to the US which is the largest buyer of Canadian lumber. Late 2019 early 2020 was rough on producers so they are carrying minimal inventory and running reduced shifting. Now COVID shows up and the fear is that demand is going to evaporate so minimal inventory of lumber and logs and minimal shifting is maintained to protect any operating lines these companies have left. No one saw demand spiking through COVID due to the renovation and remodeling demand which is what has driven this demand spike and being a commodity pricing skyrocketed to follow. This largely talking about the BC industry but being the largest supplier of high quality lumber what happens here has a big effect on the markets. Fire has had big impacts on many US operations as well particularly in the PNW. The South and Eastern US producers have had impacts due to tropical storms and COVID.

This has been my S&M talk, thanks for coming.

Bnorth, can you hook us S&M members up with heavily discounted pricing?

 

[tejay]

We wouldn’t be celebrating 2.50 a litre for a gasoline price either. When it hugely affects our own lives ( and bank account) of course everyone will complain. That’s why I’m holding off on completing my basement framing project. Our local mill - Downie is pushing out record volumes and profit of course with cedar at around 2000/1000 .

 

[Bnorth]

We wouldn’t be celebrating 2.50 a litre for a gasoline price either. When it hugely affects our own lives ( and bank account) of course everyone will complain. That’s why I’m holding off on completing my basement framing project. Our local mill - Downie is pushing out record volumes and profit of course with cedar at around 2000/1000 .

Go down and ask them how they did the last 2 years before this one

 

[Bnorth]

Bnorth, can you hook us S&M members up with heavily discounted pricing?

Can we trade, I'm looking for $0.20 off per liter of fuel?

 

[rodney1960]

Can we trade, I'm looking for $0.20 off per liter of fuel?

Done. That's easy. Just come over to this side of the border and you'll get the 20c cheaper a liter.

 

[snopro]

Done. That's easy. Just come over to this side of the border and you'll get the 20c cheaper a liter.

Turdeau will erase that with the new carbon tax next year.

 

[rodney1960]

Turdeau will erase that with the new carbon tax next year.

That's good. We're saving the planet. keep those trees standing too!

Ev's and concrete for everyone!

 

[snopro]

That's good. We're saving the planet. keep those trees standing too!

Ev's and concrete for everyone!

Lmao! Willy is back!!

 

[freeflorider]

Bnorth, can you hook us S&M members up with heavily discounted pricing?

Agreed, but we road and logging contractors are not seeing the boom in rates or work, It’s a normal yr so far around here. I keep thinking it’s going to be a cash cow deal being a logger but again I’m looking to build next yr Too and now I have a sad face because we don’t get deals on lumber apparently.
I guess hold on as elections come it might be total insanity out there.

 

[Bisch]

Agreed, but we road and logging contractors are not seeing the boom in rates or work, It’s a normal yr so far around here. I keep thinking it’s going to be a cash cow deal being a logger but again I’m looking to build next yr Too and now I have a sad face because we don’t get deals on lumber apparently.
I guess hold on as elections come it might be total insanity out there.

Perhaps the dawn of more smaller, DIY mills?!?

 

[rodney1960]

Or the dawn of newer building technologies?
Having people spread out in these old fashion timber frame homes all over the country side is terribly inefficient and hard on the environment. People need to "person up" and take resposiblity for the future of person kind.

This is what a "sustainable" home looks like. Beautiful.