“We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem"

Cdnfireman

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Do you think the USA infection rate and death rate (by percent of population) will be higher or lower than Italy?

I think there will be mass casualties in the large infected cities like New York, Los Angeles etc due to the high population density and relative scarcity of health care resources compared to population. The same here in the lower mainland and GTA, although in much fewer absolute numbers. if all other areas follow a continuing isolation policy for higher risk individuals, the numbers of deaths will be low.
I think it's gonna be necessary for this to happen, otherwise the economy and society will likely totally collapse with devastating results. The theory that the cure may be worse than the disease has strong merit.
 

Cdnfireman

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Unfortunately, the best cure is martial law. everyone goes into 100% lockdown. China got his one right. 1 month of house arrest and now they're getting back to work.
If we continue to waffle about, it will sporadically flare up again and again. We have no immunity, it can easily mutate and start killing all ages.
In Africa, thats how they stop the ebola. Villages just lock themselves down. The virus cant spread. Ugly truth, I wouldn't like it either.
I go buggy on a slow Sunday. Imagine a month or more.

The trouble is you can't trust the Chinese to tell the truth. Nobody knows the total number of casualties there, or if the current information from there is truthful about declining numbers of infected.
There's a huge difference between ebola and the corona viruses in their mortality rates and how quickly the disease burns itself out.
 

catalac

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The trouble is you can't trust the Chinese to tell the truth. Nobody knows the total number of casualties there, or if the current information from there is truthful about declining numbers of infected.
There's a huge difference between ebola and the corona viruses in their mortality rates and how quickly the disease burns itself out.

Was fairly miraculous that China took a month to hit 80,000 cases and then flatline after that.
 

ABMax24

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Was fairly miraculous that China took a month to hit 80,000 cases and then flatline after that.

And then go on the news yesterday and report that their 39 new cases came from abroad, blaming other countries for giving them back their virus. F@ck them.

If China wanted to start a quest for world domination the best time might be when this virus fully takes ahold of the rest of the world. Just sayin'....
 

Bogger

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Was fairly miraculous that China took a month to hit 80,000 cases and then flatline after that.

Very hard to believe they are only recording less than 100 new cases per day with a population density like that and almost 5000 active cases remaining - but all those numbers for all countries also depend on the number of tests performed. Canada has done more testing per-capita than anyone else and even then we are only testing those who are almost undeniably infected at this point.

I suspect the "recorded cases" are WAY low worldwide, especially India @ 536
 

tex78

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The trouble is you can't trust the Chinese to tell the truth. Nobody knows the total number of casualties there, or if the current information from there is truthful about declining numbers of infected.
There's a huge difference between ebola and the corona viruses in their mortality rates and how quickly the disease burns itself out.
Ya cause they already tried to hide it to start off

I would not trust chit from them ever again
 

Keith Brown

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:Lower on average particularly than Milan and the 14 provinces around it. Sounds like NY could as nasty though. But that's only my guess.
Do you think the USA infection rate and death rate (by percent of population) will be higher or lower than Italy?
 

Cdnfireman

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:Lower on average particularly than Milan and the 14 provinces around it. Sounds like NY could as nasty though. But that's only my guess.

New York, LA, San Francisco, Seattle and New Orleans are gonna be scary. Starting with the death toll, then from the civil unrest as the media whips everyone into a frenzy.
 

AkNomad

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Alaskans have been in self quarantine since last Sunday and will be until the 31st, I suspect after that date we may open things up if the number of cases slows or comes to a halt.
 

adamg

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Alaskans have been in self quarantine since last Sunday and will be until the 31st, I suspect after that date we may open things up if the number of cases slows or comes to a halt.

10 days? I was predicting we'd be down for 6 months.
 

Cdnfireman

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This thing will last another 3weeks or so then the government will relax the restrictions for everywhere except the hotspots. They can’t afford the devastation to the economy and the resultant social unrest if it goes longer.
 

adamg

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This thing will last another 3weeks or so then the government will relax the restrictions for everywhere except the hotspots. They can’t afford the devastation to the economy and the resultant social unrest if it goes longer.

This is the real betting pool we should be setting up. "When will restaurants be allowed to fill up to normal capacity with dine-in customers in Calgary?" I think that's as good a metric as any for this general line of prediction.
 

tejay

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I’m thinking it’s just getting rolling in Canada and USA is going to be a gong show very soon. USA has over 80,000 now . WHEN YOU CAN PRY IT FROM MY COLD DEAD HANDS , Coming into play very soon.
 
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