Does anyone really know what time it is?

[Marley]

There seems to be only a certain amount of avalanche knowledge one person can get - Throttle Decisions, paying attention all the experts, Avy Bulletins, years of experience etc - one thing that is clear - danger lurks most everywhere in the mountains. Listening to the experts it is obvious that in one day (and even in one climb) the conditions change so much that one has to pay more time to evaluation than to riding. I carry more survival stuff than a person probably should but there is a point where paranoia should take a back seat to enjoying the sport we chose as our passion.

 

[Shadam]

please finish your rant ...

 

[teamdirt]

There seems to be only a certain amount of avalanche knowledge one person can get - Throttle Decisions, paying attention all the experts, Avy Bulletins, years of experience etc - one thing that is clear - danger lurks most everywhere in the mountains. Listening to the experts it is obvious that in one day (and even in one climb) the conditions change so much that one has to pay more time to evaluation than to riding. I carry more survival stuff than a person probably should but there is a point where paranoia should take a back seat to enjoying the sport we chose as our passion.

Sounds like your lacking experience to be confident in your decision making. It's all about risk management. Know when to hold them-know when to fold them. I've been sledding and skiing the backcountry for 20+ years and this year is the worst deep seeded instability I can remember. It's lurking from the coast to the prairies- Colorado to Alaska and is ready to strike at anytime. We will have a good April once the temps cool off and the large layer over the instability bridges. As long as it stays cold it should be good but once that bridge breaks down large destructive avalanches will be the norm. Good year to wisely pick your days - Get what your saying but these are times of patience. You learn that with experience.

 

[Marley]

Sounds like your lacking experience to be confident in your decision making. ... Get what your saying but these are times of patience. You learn that with experience.

Probably right there. When I posted I had just watched parts of Throttle Decisions and had been reading the blogs and forecaster comments etc on Avalanche.ca and I just got the feeling that predicting avalanche probability most of the time is a hit and miss type of affair. I have read probably a thousand posts on here saying "be careful out there people" and guys jumping on others about their choices when the vast majority of us know the danger inherent in the sport and most know the obvious danger zones.

Other than that I'm not sure what the point of my rant was...

 

[Quicksand]

I get your rant, It seems like theres so much caution and danger out there this year it's difficult to just go have fun. It's almost as stressful being in the backcountry as it is at work. ALMOST. Just a sh!tty snow pack situation

 

[ferniesnow]

One thing that has really helped my riding was riding with older locals when I first got here. They didn't necessarily have the technical knowledge of the snow pack but their back-country experience on what slides and what doesn't was invaluable. Also, knowing what the summer conditions are like in that riding area is also a great thing to know (does that slope tend to go to ground or is there enough debris there to hold the bottom layers). Now saying that, it changes from year to year with the snow pack and weather conditions but in the back of one's brain is a storage box and I have one specifically for avalanches. It isn't full but it is filling up and every year something new is added.

I still ride with older experienced riders and garner all the information I can. I try to pass that along the line to the tours that I doo. Some take it into account and some discard it and think it is a little over kill. That is their prerogative.

What time is it? Marley, I don't know precisely. But I doo know what slopes in my riding area tend to slide and how many times. I also know which ones are iffy with various conditions. So I guess I look at my "watch" daily and try to make a good judgement with the technical information I have taken from the avi courses, the bulletins, and experience. So far, my "watch" has been right but many days I am ultra conservative and find pretty much guaranteed areas to ride. I still seem to have a lot of fun for an ol' fart!

 

[DaltonW]

Something to think about rather then "It seems like theres so much caution and danger out there this year it's difficult to just go have fun". How much fun is it when your buddy has to tell you family what happened and why search and rescue had to go in a recover your body. Not much fun there anymore I would guess. Or worse then that being the one telling your buddies family how you guys made a poor decision and hes not coming home.
Most of the times my risk tolerance is moderate, but education and experience has helped me to make my choices. Throttle decisions is a wicked education peice, I would not say that, there trying to limit your back country use, but to make the correct choices when your out there to make it back to the truck. Making your decisions on the snowpack and area your riding, or choosing yout riding area based on snow pack. Lots of days we have changed or intitial plans because of weather or snowpack. doesn't mean we just trail rode all day tho.

Best advice I can give you, or anyone, is if you are undecided or concerned about making the right choices out there and things to look for, get educated. Highly recommend Soul Rides outta revelstoke (Jeremy Hanke). Guy knows his stuff, and doesn't try to put the fear into you, saying "you cant do this" or "you cant do that". Just how to do what you want but safely and still have fun.

 

[DRD]

A two day course does not an expert make.

I grew up in the koots sledding. My first AST course confirmed I knew/know squat (relatively) about predicting avalanches. Try and be safe and have fun but if you think a two day course makes you educated, you would be wrong, IMO.

 

[DaltonW]

A two day course does not an expert make.

I grew up in the koots sledding. My first AST course confirmed I knew/know squat (relatively) about predicting avalanches. Try and be safe and have fun but if you think a two day course makes you educated, you would be wrong, IMO.

I'll disagree with you on this. Expert... not a chance, but educated for sure. Any time you further your knowledge from less to more is education. Saying that a AST 1 course is not education is a interesting way to look at things. Now take a AST 2 course and tell me your not getting educated. The idea is not to become fearful and paraniod about it, but to become EDUCATED enough to make the right decision when the time comes, and to reduce the "human factors" that lead to most avalanche fatalities.

" I knew/know squat (relatively) about predicting avalanches", I would say knowbody can predict avalanches (just no more then the weather man can predict weather), but using the tools at your disposal and knowing how to use them can help you make the right choices.

 

[Marley]

This was not supposed to be rant but rather more like "things that make you say hmmm…".

"Now saying that, it changes from year to year with the snow pack and weather conditions but in the back of one's brain is a storage box and I have one specifically for avalanches. It isn't full but it is filling up and every year something new is added."
Would it make sense to get the coordinates for each avy that happens and ones that have historically happened, rank them for yearly probability, and make a database available to download. There is a lot of 'personal' info that guys learn over the years but no way to disseminate it to the community.

@ DaltonW - I do like the weatherman analogy…sums it up perfectly!

 

[Skegmeister]

I know consequence, we read and hear about it all the time. Probability is what weighs in on my decision. that is what CAC Bullitins tell us. If it is high, I am not going up. My reason is I usually will not be the guy theat triggers an event, but where we ride, there is always someone that has a higher risk tolerance and I do not want to be collateral damage for someone else taking chances that gets us all. The good news is that I ride with the same kind of guys. The pubs love us on Red days