New estimates on how much longer the chip shortage will last

Summitric

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September 29, 2021 by Adam Malik

New estimates on how much longer the chip shortage will last​

Both Volkswagen and 3M are predicting the global semiconductor shortage plaguing automakers will last well into next year.

Volkswagen AG’s North American leader said he doesn’t see U.S. auto production returning to normal levels until the second half of 2022, according to a recent report from Bloomberg.

“Normal — when we can make every single car we want exactly when we want to make it — I don’t think will be until second half of next year,” Scott Keogh, chief executive officer of Volkswagen Group’s North American unit, told Bloomberg in an interview.

Meanwhile, 3M, which supplies products to the automotive mechanical and collision repair sectors, expects the shortage to go into 2022 as well.

It expects an overall 6 per cent drop in new vehicle production year-over-year. It initially predicted a 3 per cent drop.

“Until you see the availability of chips go up and a steady supply of all of those chips, you’re going to have auto OEMs have to go through ups and downs to keep their factories running,” said chief financial officer Monish Patolawala during a conference from Morgan Stanley.

New car sales in August dropped more than 11 per cent compared to 2020 — and more than 19 per cent compared to 2019, according to DesRosiers Automotive Consultants

“The story for the month was variability in performance from one company to another driven by semiconductor-related vehicle shortages,” said Andrew King, the consultancy’s managing partner. “DAC estimates show that certain manufacturers did actually increase sales from August 2020, whilst others, hit hard by supply chain shortages, saw dramatic declines.”
 

catrutt

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I heard today that toyota saw this problem coming and pre ordered a boat load of semiconductors. Their sales are smoking everybody else around the world.
 

ABMax24

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Also read an article that the power shortages in China are affecting some of these facilities, these foundrys are having to curtail output to meet their power consumption quotas. Not looking good for the chip shortage problem.
 

Cdnfireman

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Hopefully those two plants intel is building in the states will alleviate this.
 

Crustyolddude

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Also read an article that the power shortages in China are affecting some of these facilities, these foundrys are having to curtail output to meet their power consumption quotas. Not looking good for the chip shortage problem.
Almost sounds planned. Break out Covid in Wuhan China. Still we don’t know exact beginnings of Covid-19 (Almost 24 months into). China Curtail production of key components. Break North American economy.
 

ABMax24

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Almost sounds planned. Break out Covid in Wuhan China. Still we don’t know exact beginnings of Covid-19 (Almost 24 months into). China Curtail production of key components. Break North American economy.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but if I was to believe one that would be it.

I get that it's nice to have cheap products, but maybe we should rethink manufacturing so many critical products in a Communist country run by a dictatorial regime.
 

Cableguy

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Be ready for update from brp tmr or friday
Might not have 2022s running til January
Thats the rumor
 

Sessionsdoo

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Was talking to sales in dealer and he was thinking his new sled wouldn't be in till January. He was happy he had not flipped his old sled yet
 

snoflake

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Which dealer? heard rumors that some units are showing up in tact. Just rumor, no actual source.
 

lilduke

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Friend just picked up his new Cat.

No factory turbo, but at least it has a computer!
 

Sessionsdoo

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Banner in Vernon. They had one or two intact units so far one utility and one Trail. All others still crated and missing gauge cluster, dess base or ecm from them. They all were only missing one of the three from what i understood.

This was last week so maybe they got more intact in
 
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Zrock

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Almost sounds planned. Break out Covid in Wuhan China. Still we don’t know exact beginnings of Covid-19 (Almost 24 months into). China Curtail production of key components. Break North American economy.
i agree... China has full control over their country and they want control every where else...

Its not just computer chips shortages every major and minor component for trucking, and automotive is in major shortages... and its going to get worse before it gets better... Cant deliver product if your truckers are down...
 

lilduke

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Cats are still using windows98 chips
Those are recycled. Lots to go around lol
True that! Hopefully those new turbos show up by spring or everyone will be on recycled sleds.
 
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