Farmer talk

007sevens · Jul 16, 2018

snopro said:
Yep that's the way it goes in farming. Weird year in that very dry last year, then 2 ft of snow down here all winter which is highly unusual which ran off and never sunk in then no rain. Working on 1.5" of rain here since the snow melt with the largest single rain being 6/10" in one storm. Could never keep the seed wet for any period of time so a lot of stuff germinated then died when it ran out of moisture.

We look pretty good right where I'm at but lots in the near vicinity weren't getting the storm rains. Still at that the crop isn't as good as last year. I guy really needs the 4 day rain right after seeding to make it beautiful. The storm showers just don't seem to get it done. To add insult some just south of me have a 70-80% hail claim coming to them. Good or bad I guess, depends how you look at it. They should have been better off with the crop I think. We are sitting around 6.5" since seeding now, most a little to late so have some uneven germ.

snopro · Jul 16, 2018

007sevens said:
We look pretty good right where I'm at but lots in the near vicinity weren't getting the storm rains. Still at that the crop isn't as good as last year. I guy really needs the 4 day rain right after seeding to make it beautiful. The storm showers just don't seem to get it done. To add insult some just south of me have a 70-80% hail claim coming to them. Good or bad I guess, depends how you look at it. They should have been better off with the crop I think. We are sitting around 6.5" since seeding now, most a little to late so have some uneven germ.

Yeah some of us were commenting the other day is we don't see the 2 or 3 day general rains anymore like we used to. We seem to totally rely on thunderstorms now and that's hit and miss. It takes moisture to make moisture and if it ain't raining then you are SOL.

eclipse1966 · Jul 20, 2018

some good news today for Canada

[FONT=&quot]JAPAN LIFTED its ban on purchases of Canadian wheat and flour, imposed June 15 after the GMO incident in Alberta. It tested all Canadian wheat in its inventory and found no GMO. The loss of export sales was approx 130,000 tonnes.

[/FONT]

snopro · Jul 20, 2018

eclipse1966 said:
some good news today for Canada

JAPAN LIFTED its ban on purchases of Canadian wheat and flour, imposed June 15 after the GMO incident in Alberta. It tested all Canadian wheat in its inventory and found no GMO. The loss of export sales was approx 130,000 tonnes.

What do you think this will do for pricing new crop Dennis? Its gotta go up I hope?

eclipse1966 · Jul 23, 2018

Ken, the big hurdle I see right now right across the board is US clients reluctant to make any contractual commitments on Canadian crops as the worry Trump will place a tariff. I have been talking to many buyers over the past several weeks and we are all seeing this "reluctance" right now. I sell a lot of grain to one of Canada's largest flour mills and they told me they are very worried about this as they would have secured some flour contracts by now like in most years but so far they are 65% down in securing them. Time will tell! Also, US farmers in the grain belt are experiencing much better quality this year but yields are lower by avg 10%. So, if we rely on US sales alone, at this time it doesnt look promising but still early yet.

snopro said:
eclipse1966 said:

some good news today for Canada

JAPAN LIFTED its ban on purchases of Canadian wheat and flour, imposed June 15 after the GMO incident in Alberta. It tested all Canadian wheat in its inventory and found no GMO. The loss of export sales was approx 130,000 tonnes.

What do you think this will do for pricing new crop Dennis? Its gotta go up I hope?

Click to expand...

snopro · Jul 23, 2018

Thanks Dennis
.

skegpro · Jul 24, 2018

........

eclipse1966 · Jul 25, 2018

GMO's have their place but I don't think this is a fair comparison. Its the longer term effects that is in question. On a brighter note, wheat futures soar today so that will put a smile on your face

skegpro said:
........

skegpro · Jul 25, 2018

eclipse1966 said:
GMO's have their place but I don't think this is a fair comparison. Its the longer term effects that is in question. On a brighter note, wheat futures soar today so that will put a smile on your face

Yeah up $0.33 on the day.

Couple thoughts.

The Japan thing helps.

But Trump gave such a big bailout to the US farmer over the Chinese tarrifs they really are not in a rush to price grain now.

Joholio · Jul 26, 2018

Lots of rounds got rolled up in my travels today. Cheers to the farmers

eclipse1966 · Jul 30, 2018

wonder if he considers that a subsidy?

skegpro said:
Yeah up $0.33 on the day.

Couple thoughts.

The Japan thing helps.

But Trump gave such a big bailout to the US farmer over the Chinese tarrifs they really are not in a rush to price grain now.

skegpro · Jul 30, 2018

eclipse1966 said:
wonder if he considers that a subsidy?

.........

eclipse1966 · Jul 31, 2018

I bet you cant find ONE guy that will not take the money LOL.

skegpro said:
.........

eclipse1966 · Jul 31, 2018

wheat up again!

http://www.agriweek.com/mgx136p.pdf

skegpro · Aug 3, 2018

eclipse1966 said:
wheat up again!

http://www.agriweek.com/mgx136p.pdf

World wheat prices are a “Powder Keg” looking for a match! "Taking the July IGC world wheat production/stocks forecast and pulling out stocks for major exporting nations produces a record low stock/use ratio and considerable upside potential for world wheat values into early 2019," tweeted analyst Dan Basse (@BasseAgResource)

eclipse1966 · Aug 3, 2018

also, add the fact that the US harvest looks good but yields down between 10-15% but quality is better than last year's crop. It will be interesting year!

skegpro said:
World wheat prices are a “Powder Keg” looking for a match! "Taking the July IGC world wheat production/stocks forecast and pulling out stocks for major exporting nations produces a record low stock/use ratio and considerable upside potential for world wheat values into early 2019," tweeted analyst Dan Basse (@BasseAgResource)

skegpro · Aug 3, 2018

eclipse1966 said:
also, add the fact that the US harvest looks good but yields down between 10-15% but quality is better than last year's crop. It will be interesting year!

And from what I understand about the $12billion subsidy they just got it is better tax wise for them to sit on this year's crop.

We once sold wheat at $22/bushel.
Anything is possible.

007sevens · Aug 3, 2018

skegpro said:
And from what I understand about the $12billion subsidy they just got it is better tax wise for them to sit on this year's crop.

We once sold wheat at $22/bushel.
Anything is possible.

Who bought wheat at 22/bus. Seen the futures that high in 08 but didn't think anybody actually paid that much.

skegpro · Aug 3, 2018

007sevens said:
Who bought wheat at 22/bus. Seen the futures that high in 08 but didn't think anybody actually paid that much.

That is when we sold.
Had a target set for $22 even.
Hit $23 and then dropped like a stone.

eclipse1966 · Aug 3, 2018

apparently they are getting that subsidy as I spoke with some of my producers in the US. So, it will be interesting to say the least. Kind of reminds me back in 2008 when the US banks got a bail out from the government but they decided to make it hard to loan out money despite the original concept to help the economy.

skegpro said:
And from what I understand about the $12billion subsidy they just got it is better tax wise for them to sit on this year's crop.

We once sold wheat at $22/bushel.
Anything is possible.

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